It was a tough week-plus to be a Yankee fan. First, you are coming off a female-dog slapping from the Rays, then get swept by the Mets at home and, finally, have to watch the Red Sox flex their muscles on consecutive days with Jon Lester, Justin Masterson and Bartolo Colon.
The fact sophomore Lester throws a no-hitter, a rookie Masterson spot starts a gem and Colon looks as good as new -- all just salt in the wound. No wonder it became time to alter the Joba Rules.
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As if things were already perfect enough for the Red Sox and bad for the Yankees: The Rays waived young pitching right in their face. They have it coming out of their ears with Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Matt Garza, Edwin Jackson, Andy Sonnanstine and the pro debut of 2007 No. 1 overall pick David Price on Thursday night at Class A Vero Beach. Jake McGee and Wade Davis aren't too shabby in Double-A either.
Then the Mets, who stink like the Yankees, at least had Johan Santana to boast last weekend. You know, that pitcher they didn't want to trade Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy for. How is that working out right now?
Well, here comes big ol' Joba Chamberlain like the Lone Yankee riding his high horse, Silver. Poor horse.
Chamberlain stretched out for 35 pitches Wednesday night and will be joining the Yankees rotation by mid-June. He might even be able to make abbreviated starts before then, if the Yankees choose to keep him around as opposed to making a five- to six-inning start or two back in the minors.
Here is how we could see it shaking out:
- Joba next works a 40-plus pitch relief appearance this weekend.
- Stretches out to around 55 pitches of long relief -- perhaps on Kennedy's turn Tuesday, May 27.
- Around June 1, he works a 65-pitch, four- to five-inning stint of relief.
- The days then need to be further apart with more rest in between. So, the weekend of June 6-8 vs. Kansas City, he could make a 75-80 pitch relief outing or an abbreviated start.
- If he doesn't start that weekend, the June 10-12 series at Oakland could be his first start and he would be allowed to approach 100 pitches, if he is dealing that day.
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It'll be interesting to see how Joba's nasty array of pitches translates as a starter.
(US Presswire)
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The above timetable is based on the fact the Yankees cannot afford to send him to the minors to stretch out. They need his arm getting outs in the majors right now.
If he is sent to the minors, he will need to stay there at least 10 days on his option. That equates to two starts with regular four days of rest. That would put him out of play as a reliever for two Fantasy weeks at the beginning of June.
Regardless, by mid-June, Joba should be full-go as a Fantasy starter. Well, as close to full-go as a 100-pitch arm can be.
Now, what can you expect? He should already be owned in all Rotisserie leagues and Head-to-Head formats with reserves -- or ones that use non-closer relievers. As a starter for the soon-to-heat-up Yankees, he will wind up being a solid start in all leagues and the No. 1 rookie pitcher in Fantasy.
Better than Johnny Cueto. Better than Jair Jurrjens.
Owned already in 85 percent of CBSSports.com leagues, you best hope so. His 100 mph stuff won't translate over six innings-plus and make him a Justin Verlander rookie, but even if he needs to tick it down to mid-to-low 90s, his filthy slider should still give hitters fits.
There could be some cautious five-inning outings where he gets a no-decision, so consider him an 8- to 9-game winner with a mid-3.00 ERA and a strikeout per inning. That is about as productive, Fantasy-wise, as Roger Clemens was in 2006.
Kennedy will lose his rotation spot in the coming weeks, but don't give up on him entirely in AL-only play. After a few starts in Triple-A, he can once again position himself to be an impact pitcher down the stretch. If you are chosing between stashing Kennedy or Hughes, though, the choice still has to be the higher-ceiling guy, Hughes.
We always say the end of months are organizational evaluation checkpoints -- especially June 1. The Yankees make the transition with Joba and also move 25-year-old Daniel McCutchen (4-3, 2.52 ERA, .209 BAA in Double-A) to Triple-A and 23-year-old Mark Melancon (1-0, 2.84 ERA, .265 BAA) to Double-A at the same time. Consider McCutchen and Melancon long shots to help this year, but they could be rotation options in 2009.
The Yankees will say June was their plan all along on Joba. No reason to admit their slump, a Subway Sweep AND the Red Sox recent fortunes forced their hand -- or to rip their own young starters for not getting the job done. But we know better.
Clemens is out of play as the Yankees kick-starter this time around, so make room -- a lot of it -- for Joba.
Prospect watch
Every Thursday, we break down all the minor leaguers who are owned in at least 1 percent of our Fantasy leagues, both hitters and pitchers. This will be your essential guide to unearthing the elite prospects before they hit the big time.
We now have minor league stats updated daily on our player profiles. The stats listed here are those with the players' current level and are through games of Wednesday, May 21.
